I recently finished a compelling series on The Rest Is History podcast, focused on the events leading up to the First World War, also known as “The Great War.” Not only is history presented in a captivating manner, but this series also encourages us to examine our present circumstances more critically.
One striking takeaway is that, as tensions escalated toward war, no one truly believed they were heading toward a catastrophic conflict. Despite the diplomatic messages being exchanged, the self-serving political alliances, and the awareness that one country’s aggression could provoke retaliation, leaders were convinced that a “great war” would not emerge from what they perceived to be minor conflicts. They underestimated the gravity of the situation, viewing the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife, Sophie, as merely an individual tragedy. It wasn’t until circumstances spiraled beyond control that some government officials realized the full impact of their actions—far too late for the over nine million soldiers, mostly young men, who lost their lives.
Studying history offers us a chance to analyze past events and learn from them. Social, political, and economic patterns transcend time, showing that when people are hungry and dissatisfied with their leaders, unrest often follows. In dire situations, the masses frequently seek a common enemy to blame for their grievances. While this scapegoating doesn’t remedy the underlying issues, the perception that action is being taken often fosters hope for the future.
Looking at recent years in the U.S., we can observe parallels to the discontent of the early twentieth century. I’ve explored this theme in earlier writings, such as “Humanity at a Crossroads.” (https://rosieglobal.com/2025/01/27/the-second-coming/) Many others have also drawn comparisons between pre-World War II circumstances and our current landscape. Just as we regard World War I as a precursor to World War II, we should examine the buildup to World War I to identify any warning signs that might signal a repeat of history.
Take Kaiser Wilhelm II, for instance—a figure marked by tragedy and misunderstanding. The grandson of Queen Victoria, he was both rejected by his family and teased for his physical disabilities. He channeled his grief into a deep desire for recognition and importance. When his beloved nephew and niece were assassinated, Wilhelm felt compelled to support the alliance between Germany and Austria, seeking revenge for their deaths.
The situation grew more complicated as Russia, allied with Serbia—the nation Germany and Austria were threatening—became involved. Russia feared that a war in the Balkans would jeopardize crucial trade routes, specifically the grain imports from Odessa and Kyiv. Meanwhile, while France officially held no alliance with Britain, Prime Minister Grey made informal promises to the French ambassador, leading to a tacit understanding that would come into play. With Germany and Austria-Hungary firm in their alliance, they found themselves flanked by two military power blocs: Britain and France to the west and Russia to the east.
One might assume this situation was a recipe for disaster, but then-world leaders saw it differently. Austria had previously invaded Balkan territories without facing serious consequences from Russia. The British were preoccupied with their own internal strife in Ireland, and Germany didn’t anticipate escalating into war. Wilhelm II naively thought that Serbia would accept their demands, leading to a manageable resolution. For France, while resentment lingered regarding the loss of Lorraine and Alsace, the idea of a “great war” was not on their minds; minor reprisals seemed sufficient.
It’s often said that hindsight is 20/20 vision, and that holds true, especially if we are willing to learn from the past.
In today’s world, allowing events to unfold without acknowledging the potential for catastrophic outcomes presents significant risks. As we observe long-standing alliances weakening amidst political division and economic troubles, we can see troubling parallels. Currently, we witness a major power led by an individual who craves reverence and control, potentially willing to disregard free speech and human rights for personal gain and political maneuvering. He has openly threatened military action to annex territories and imposed tariffs under the guise of protecting national interests, while also distancing the U.S. from international responsibilities and treaties.
Yet, despite these alarming trends, his supporters praise his leadership, viewing him as someone who delivers on his promises. They believe that his aggressive rhetoric is merely bluster. They think he will make their country great again. The potential harm it can do to other countries and peoples is of no concern to them.
Many leaders from other nations downplay the situation, believing that flattering this leader can mitigate his more extreme aspirations. They argue that annexation will never occur—it contradicts international law, after all. The prevailing thought seems to be that if they appease his demands, they can avoid dire consequences. They carefully try not to make waves or provoke an emotional outburst from him. He is regarded as a transactional leader; they think they know him and can play his game. However, underestimating the potential for conflict, based on familiarity with past behaviors and dynamics, can be a grave mistake.
So, we find ourselves at a crossroads. We can lull ourselves into complacency by the belief that current tensions can be managed. We can make ourselves believe it won’t come to an annihilation of democracy and human rights in his country. That he won’t start a war because he wants more power. That he won’t start a war because he wants to control trade routes. That he won’t start a war because he harbors a grudge against certain countries he feels treated him disrespectfully in the past.
Or we can recognize that we are positioned atop a powder keg, aware of the risks we face. That we must act progressively in order to maintain peace. The lessons from history are clear: ignoring the warning signs could lead us down a perilous path.
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