RosieGlobal

Geopolitics have taken a significant turn this past week. The U.S. has revealed its lack of commitment to Ukraine, surprising many European leaders in the process. In response, these leaders have intensified discussions in an unprecedented attempt to unify, showcasing a unity not previously seen in European politics. With both sides risking a substantial fracture in the trans-Atlantic alliance, the phrase, “Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true!” from Aesop’s Fables, comes to mind.

The recent German elections have introduced a new chancellor to the stage. While coalition negotiations are still pending, it is already a foregone conclusion that Friedrich Merz will become the new German chancellor. Just an hour after the world collectively sighed with relief at the AfD’s failure to secure victory, Merz delivered a strong and unexpected message during an ‘Election Day’ television interview. He stated: “An absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that, step by step, we can achieve real independence from the USA.” He further added that “the Americans are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”

His statements were surprising for two reasons. First, Merz has always been deemed a ‘trans-Atlanticist’. His call to sever ties between the U.S. and Europe is extraordinary for someone who has consistently worked to enhance relations within this alliance. It appears that the messaging from figures such as Trump, Vance, and Rubio has resonated deeply with him, perhaps leading him to lose faith in this alliance. Second, Europe has historically relied on the U.S. for military support and defense—arguably over-relying, which has contributed to the frustrations surrounding NATO funding. This reliance stems from the lessons of World War II; Europeans are acutely aware that they could not have defeated the Nazi regime without American and Canadian military aid. NATO was not simply an alliance created to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War; its foundations rest on the ethical and fundamental principles of defending democracy and recognizing the role each nation plays in upholding democratic values in the Western world. The concentration of defensive forces was intended not only to deter aggression but also to promote democratic ideals while keeping communism at bay. When the leading country in NATO threatens to seize Greenland (an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark), interferes with the elections of a member state (Germany), and warns that Europe cannot count on its support for protecting its borders, something has to give. And it has. Europe now feels deeply offended and betrayed; the response has been unprecedented.

On Monday, Emmanuel Macron visited President Trump, and a remarkable moment unfolded when Macron publicly fact-checked Trump live in the Oval Office during a press conference. Macron’s mission seemed twofold: to persuade Trump to adopt a more constructive stance on NATO and the war in Ukraine (it has been suggested that Trump finds Macron agreeable) and to convey that Europe is no longer pleading for U.S. support. Europe is taking a stand: if you’re not with us, we can manage without you. This represents a significant shift over the past few weeks.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to visit Trump this coming Thursday. Reports suggest that his mission aligns with Macron’s; however, the British are more committed to salvaging their relationship with the U.S. The Sun, a British newspaper, has even proposed that Starmer invite Trump to Balmoral, King Charles’s outdoor retreat, as a means of wooing him. Others have suggested bestowing an honorary title upon Trump, knowing that he is an anglophile and that such gestures might appeal to his ego. Importantly, the U.K. stands firmly behind Ukraine and is unlikely to waver in its position. They hope the U.S. will ultimately support Europe’s efforts to protect Ukraine from Russian aggression, yet they are prepared to maintain their stance without sacrificing Ukraine to appease the U.S..

Some argue that Trump’s bark is worse than his bite, referring to his first term when he made many bold statements but followed through on very few. His countless changes of mind have led to a belief that he will act similarly in this administration. However, I consider this a false hope. Trump unexpectedly stumbled into the White House in 2016, surrounded by seasoned political advisors who kept him within the bounds of democratic norms, guiding him to respect long-standing socio-political agreements. This time, however, Trump has thoroughly prepared for his presidency and has surrounded himself with like-minded advisors. There is no one in this administration to temper his impulsiveness; if anything, they are inclined to push boundaries even further. His words will most likely translate into actions, as demonstrated in his first month in office.

Where does this leave the world? The U.S.’s flirtation with Russia, its stance on Ukraine, and its isolationist policies will likely result in increased isolation for the U.S.. Russia is not a friendly ally; Putin is as formidable a force as Trump—albeit more cunning and strategically savvy. He welcomes this newfound relationship with the U.S. as long as it serves his interests, potentially leaving the U.S. completely isolated at a critical juncture.

As for Europe? If the strategy is to sever ties with the U.S.—militarily, economically, or politically—Europe will need to strive for unprecedented levels of unity. European alliances have mainly been economically driven, with military collaboration largely sustained through NATO. A politically unified Europe remains a goal yet to be realized, especially when it comes to substantial, defining issues.

Perhaps the European leaders and Trump will ultimately find it best to part ways, recognizing that their aspirations no longer align. It’s possible they will conclude that Europe and the U.S. have grown apart, and perhaps they will entertain the notion that letting go is the healthiest choice. To that, I say: Be careful what you wish for…